Andy Burnham has begun his second week as Prime Minister by giving Labour its first opinion-poll lead over Reform UK since March 2025. A More in Common survey (July 24–27) puts Labour four points ahead, ending Reform’s 16-month streak at the top. Pollster Luke Tryl called it “just one poll” but said momentum is clearly with Burnham, noting Labour’s highest vote share since 2024 while Reform and the Greens hit monthly lows. He cautioned that the lead may not be sustainable once governing realities set in.
Burnham’s first-week focus on cost-of-living included a £2 bus fare cap for England, removing VAT from electricity bills, and a 20% business-rates cut for pubs, clubs, and small music venues.
Meanwhile, Reform has faced a difficult period amid media scrutiny of its finances. Leader Nigel Farage was hit by a Parliamentary Standards investigation over an undeclared £5 million gift from a crypto billionaire, though the probe paused when Farage resigned as MP for Clacton to fight a by-election he framed as “people versus the establishment.” His strategy backfired, however, as all other major parties declined to contest the seat, leaving novelty candidate Count Binface as his main rival.